The Predict Prostate model has been developed from data from the National Cancer Registry and survival data from the Office for National Statistics. Alongside risk communication experts from the University of Cambridge they have converted the model into an easy to use web-tool. The tool is intended for use within a consultation between a patient newly diagnosed with prostate cancer and their doctor or specialist nurse. The model asks for information on everything about their cancer from PSA, BRCA status, tumour stage, Gleason score, and biopsy characteristics, and also information on their age, whether they’ve been hospitalised for other reasons and for any significant comorbidities, such as a previous heart attack, kidney failure, diabetes, or other cancers.
Once all the information has been entered, the Predict tool will provide an estimate that is based on data from more than 10,000 case studies from Eastern England. The results look at the long term chances of survival for patients with initial monitoring or radical treatment. So, for example, the tool could suggest that a patient has a 67% chance of survival over ten years with surveillance, and a 75% chance if treated with radiotherapy or surgery. The tool will also provide a prediction for 15 years and provide information on potential side effects too.
By providing men with more personalised information, it’s hoped patients can have more informed discussions with consultants and nurses, as well as with friends and family on what the best choice for them might be. Free online access also enables men from any part of the country to have the same access to evidence-based, standardised information.
You can see the tool here: https://prostate.predict.nhs.uk/tool
